URUGUAY
Prospects For Success: Boy that defence is tough. Two goals conceded thus far in five games, and one of those was Sulley Muntari’s long-range speculator that took Fernando Muslera (who despite looking like a small child, has been terrific thus far) by surprise. That defence could be severely weakened (more on that shortly), but the side is so well drilled that should their first-choice four not be available, the replacements will slot in easily enough.
Further up the field, Diego Forlan has been one of the players of the tournament thus far. Taking every set-piece, Forlan has showed that not only is he a top-class goal-scorer, he is a much more rounded player than the bumbling fool we remember from his Manchester United days. Often more or less playing in midfield, Forlan probes and passes and – when the opportunity arises – unleashes that thunderbolt shot which has caught a couple of keepers snoozing.
Prospects For Failure: While the intervention of his hands is the primary reason they are here, Luiz Suarez’s suspension is a big blow for the Uruguayans. Three goals in the tournament, the Ajax forward has spent the last month lurking around assorted back posts, generally making something of a nuisance of himself. It will be interesting to see who Oscar Tabarez picks as his replacement. Sebastian Abreu, he of cheeky penalty fame, is one candidate, but he’s not really the sort of speed merchant that is ideal against the sluggish Dutch defence. The rather nippier Sebastian Fernandez could well be an option, and he will be told to put his head down and run at Ooijer, Van Bronckhorst et al.
While Suarez’s absence isn’t ideal, the prospect of being without Diego Lugano is more of a problem. The Uruguay skipper limped out of the quarter-final, and looks doubtful for Tuesday. In his stead will probably be Andres Scotti, and anyone who saw his skittish performance against Ghana will fear for his prospects when faced with the Dutch forward line.
Key Men: It’s an obvious one, but Forlan has been at the heart of everything good about Uruguay. Lugano may have the captain’s armband, but Forlan has been the leader by example on the pitch. Also, good luck to Diego Perez, who will most likely be the man entrusted with looking after Wesley Sneijder.
HOLLAND
Prospects For Success: The curious thing about this Holland team is that they are on the brink of the World Cup final, but haven’t ever really looked totally convincing. The group games were dealt with efficiently enough, while they didn’t have to do that much to get past a limited Slovakia and they were lucky to escape only 1-0 down at half-time against Brazil. Therefore, the old ‘What will they be like when they play well’ argument springs to mind.
A more tangible reason to be cheerful is the presence of two of the finest attacking talents in the tournament. Bert van Marwijk could very easily have thrown Arjen Robben in from the start of the tournament, risking his fragile hamstrings in the hope that he would produce enough magic. Fortunately, Van Marwijk realised Robben must be handled carefully, and the benefits of that treatment are being shown now. And then they have Sneijder, a man capable of running games on his own and retaining possession like a master.
Prospects For Failure: The harsh may argue that Holland haven’t faced a decent team at the top of their game just yet. Brazil seemed to relax in the manner of a team who thought the game was won after Robinho’s goal, and then fall apart when they were even slightly pressured. Of course, one could equally argue that the Dutch forced Brazil into that particular corner, but it’s possible that their lack of real dominance thus far could bite them at some point.
In reality, their biggest problem is with the players who won’t/may not be available. Van Marwijk will be without both Nigel de Jong and Gregory van der Wiel for the semi-final, and in addition Joris Mathijsen could be missing. The centre-half was injured in the warm-up before the Brazil game, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready to return. Andre Ooijer will again take his place if required.
Either way, the Dutch will have a rather ponderous back line, with Mathijsen, Ooijer nor Johnny Heitinga providing what one would call electric pace. Could the Uruguayan triple-pronged attack cause them problems?
Key Men: While it’s clear that Sneijder, Robben and Robin van Persie hold the attacking threat, the Dutch will have to be solid at the back to cope with the Uruguayans. And perhaps the man with the most important job in Cape Town will be Mark van Bommel. Diego Forlan is nominally a striker, but has done much of his best work dropping deep, way behind Luiz Suarez and Edinson Cavani, so Van Bommel will need to keep an eye on the Atletico Madrid man. Especially since he’ll be without his regular partner in destruction in De Jong.
RENJUNA PREDICTION : URUGUAY 0 vs NETHERLAND 2
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